Research Methodology
EMC has a dedicated network of exerienced researchers all over the
world in order to ensure the most accurate and relevant information and
statistics in the EMC World Cellular Database. EMC uses mainly primary
sources of information in their research methodology, such as correspondence
and contacts within companies worldwide. The EMC's worldwide field research
network use resources including:
Forecasting Methodology
EMC's proprietary forecast uses the Pearl (s-curve) curve as its underlying
algorithm, and although statistically based, the forecast also accounts
for EMC's own judgmental opinion of individual markets. Forecasts are reviewed
on a quarterly basis allowing for the latest market intelligence to be
included in each forecast up to the end of the previous quarter.
EMC's historical subscriber records are the subscriber forecasts' starting point from which current growth rates are mapped along the s-curve towards an assumed market saturation point. This market saturation point is a function of GDP/capita, the maturity of individual cellular markets and a competitive factor. This competitive factor accounts for the number of players in a market, regulatory issues such as new licences, interconnection and coverage constraints; competing network services such as pre-paid services, as well as the political and economic environments.
In the terminal sales forecasts, an average handset lifespan, calculated from historical terminal sales and renewal churn rates, is applied to a Poisson (normal) distribution curve which determines the rate at which handsets are renewed over time. This renewal factor is combined with the anticipated subscriber net gains as calculated from the cellular subscriber forecasts to produce the terminal sales forecasts.