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Fixed telephony, mobile telephony and broadband services are typically viewed as separate markets. However, providers of these services do compete with each other for a share of the broader market for voice services. This report analyses the dynamics of the residential voice market as a whole in order to understand properly the factors that are affecting this market and the prospects of the companies that provide voice services.

Our analysis focuses on the residential market, which accounted for approximately 65% of voice spend in Western Europe in 2004. Forecasts of numbers of connections, spend and minutes of use are based on a detailed analysis of how households are changing their mix of types of voice connection, with various combinations of mobile, narrowband fixed and broadband access. To understand key differences between major Western European markets, and how they are likely to change over time, we consider the key drivers of fixed-mobile substitution (FMS) and Voice over IP (VoIP) in each market.

The countries covered in detail are France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Sweden and the UK, in addition to providing estimates for Western Europe as a whole. Historical data from 2003 to 2004 and forecasts to 2010 are provided in more than 1400 data series.

Data series include:

• connections
• households
• minutes
• minutes per connection
• minutes per household
• spend
• spend per connection
• spend per household
• spend per minute

Minutes are presented by originating network and terminating network. Also, prepaid and postpaid splits are provided for mobile-originated minutes and mobile spend, while fixed-originated minutes and spend are split by domestic, international and mobile-terminated call types.

Minutes and spend are also presented by the following household types defined by their types of voice connection:

• mobile only
• POTS only
• POTS and mobile
• POTS, mobile and VoIP
• mobile and VoIP.

Forecasts are supported by a clear outline of key market drivers and the pertinent differences between the main country markets covered. All output and explanations are provided in Excel format to allow you to understand the thinking behind the forecasts, and to easily create additional graphs and analysis to suit your individual needs. Purchasers of the report can also call on our authors for additional support.

Who should read this report?

The forecasts and analysis in this report are an essential part of the toolkit for any professional who needs to evaluate strategies for delivering mass-market voice communications services over public networks, whether using POTS, broadband, or cellular technologies.

• Fixed telecoms operators need to understand the extent of the FMS threat in the countries in which they operate, and how regulation and trends in the broadband market could either help or hinder their efforts to retain voice revenue.
• Mobile network operators need to have a realistic view of the scope for stealing fixed voice minutes across various Western European countries. They also need to be aware of the implications of competition between established operators, new 3G entrants and MVNOs for FMS and voice revenue.
• Operators with both fixed and mobile networks need to understand the dynamics of the voice market as a whole in order to effectively influence their customers' choice of voice services. They also need to know how FMS is likely to differ between markets according to the extent to which converged solutions can or are being offered.
• Broadband service providers require an assessment of the likely penetration and impact of VoIP services where they are being introduced.
• Network equipment vendors will be better able to market solutions by being aware of how the retail market for voice communications is changing across narrowband, broadband and mobile networks.
• Banks and VCs need to understand the likely extent of FMS and VoIP usage in various countries because of its implications for a variety of types of company, including fixed and mobile operators, new 3G entrants, MVNOs and VoIP providers, as well as vendors of solutions designed to defend against or accelerate FMS.
• Regulators need to be aware of the inter-relationships between fixed, mobile and broadband voice services. They will also benefit from an independent view of the impact that regulatory and other factors are having on the broader, competitive dynamics of the voice market.

About the authors

Katrina Bond (Principal Analyst) specialises in mobile telecoms, and has written reports for Analysys Research on the mobile content and entertainment market, Western European mobile forecasts, mobile data solutions for businesses, GPRS roaming, pricing of GPRS services, GPRS billing, mobile portals and ASPs and m-commerce. She is a regular contributor to Analysys Research?s Mobile Networks and Services online market intelligence service. Before joining Analysys in 1998, Katrina worked as a consultant in Australia.

Alex Zadvorny (Senior Analyst) specialises in European mobile markets and is Project Manager of the Analysys Research Mobile Networks and Services online database service. He has also worked on a number of strategic custom projects. Having begun his career in Ukraine, Alex worked as an equity analyst in London for several years before joining Analysys. As well as a degree in Economics, he holds an M.B.A. from INSEAD in France.

Dr Rupert Wood (Principal Analyst, Analysys Research) specialises in competition analysis of the European fixed telecoms market and in particular the development of broadband services. He has extensive experience of forecasting and sizing European fixed telecoms markets and was author of Western European Fixed Telecoms Markets: forecasts 2004?2009. Rupert was also lead author of The Impact of Voice over Broadband: forecasts for Western Europe, Maximising Revenues from Broadband: new pricing strategies for European operators, FRIACO: how capacity-based interconnection strengthens the Internet market, Where DTV and home storage will disintermediate the Internet and Interactive Consumer Broadband: Sex, Sport and Shopping?. He also directs the Analysys Research Fixed Networks and Services database service. Before joining Analysys, Rupert was a lecturer at the University of Cambridge.