The forecasts have been refined and build on the 2005 database, the most authoritative yet published by ABS. Now in
its ninth year, ABS Power Predictor has been reviewed again and new data added. The . . .
The forecasts have been refined and build on the 2005 database, the most authoritative yet published by ABS. Now in its ninth year, ABS Power Predictor has been reviewed again and new data added. The amount of data available for reliable forecasting grows each year, it escalated in 2004 and this continued in 2005. In constructing the projections for PP5 in 2006 we have been able to draw on the national demand projections of 116 individual countries and the results have been validated against eight international forecast series.
Historical data has been assembled from every country and from 20 international agencies. The historical data hasbeen expanded. Previous editions of ABS Power Predictor contained figures at five yearly intervals from 1970, forecast to 2020. PP5 contains historical data for the major countries back to 1938-45, accounting for 91% of global capacity, and in selected countries even earlier.
As the replacement markets grow, it is more important to have a full record of the past in order to predict future demand for retrofit, refurbishment and replacement, in addition to new installations. For selected countries we have been able to chart annual capacity right back to the earliest days of the electrical industry, in two cases when the lights were first switched on. Annual data is shown for the following countries for every year from the beginning of the electrical supply industry.
The potential replacement market is defined as the plant due for decommissioning on reaching 40 years of age, although with modern asset management techniques life may be prolonged.
The Project Database contains details of nearly 2,000 power generation projects in 122 countries