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Voice traffic is migrating from fixed to mobile networks worldwide but the extent and rate of this migration vary widely between countries. Fixed?Mobile Substitution in Western Europe: causes and effects quantifies the true scale of fixed?mobile substitution (FMS) in Western Europe, in terms of fixed-line substitution and the migration of voice minutes from fixed to mobile networks. The report considers a wide range of key metrics, such as the proportion of households that are mobile-only; the proportion of voice traffic originating on a mobile network; voice usage per capita; voice spend per capita; fixed and mobile voice spend per minute; and the price premium of mobile voice over fixed voice. The report assesses how these metrics have changed over a two-year period, to provide insight into the rate of FMS and its effects.

Based on a wealth of fixed, mobile and demographic data, the report determines the root causes of FMS, identifies how mobile and fixed operators? actions have accelerated or decelerated FMS, and provides definitive guidance on actions that mobile, fixed and integrated network operators can take to address the immediate opportunities and threats presented by FMS.

Fixed?Mobile Substitution in Western Europe: causes and effects answers your key questions:

• What is the real extent of FMS in individual Western European markets, in terms of the displacement of fixed voice lines and in terms of fixed and mobile networks? respective share of total voice traffic and revenue?
• What are the reasons for the substantial differences in the extent of FMS in different markets across Western Europe?
• What are the key factors that dictate the extent and speed of FMS in a particular market? What is the impact of absolute price levels, the relative pricing of fixed and mobile services, and the proportion of customers with prepaid tariffs?
• Is FMS good or bad for mobile operators?
• What actions can mobile, fixed and integrated network operators take to speed up or slow down FMS and to maximise their revenue from voice services in the context of FMS?

Who should read this report

• Mobile network operators: understand the current extent of FMS, its implications for revenue, and the steps that can be taken to maximise the benefits, and minimise the risks, of FMS.

  
  

  • Fixed network operators: assess the potential damage and timescales of FMS and identify actions that can be taken to slow FMS and minimise its effects on revenue.

    
    

  • Integrated network operators: understand how FMS affects the voice traffic and revenue of fixed and mobile networks and identify strategies for maximising overall return.

    
    

    • Regulators: understand the changing landscape of voice services as fixed lines are displaced and voice traffic migrates from fixed to mobile networks.

      
      

      • Financial analysts and investors: understand the speed and extent of FMS and its consequences for fixed and mobile networks.

      About the authors

      Dr Alastair Brydon and Dr Mark Heath are founders of Sound Partners Ltd and authors of over 25 reports from Analysys Research, including Mobile Number Portability (MNP): strategies for operators and regulators, Mobile Operator Performance Benchmarks, The Business Case for WiMAX, Forecasting the Commercial Impact of Wireless VoIP in the USA and Western Europe, Pricing Mobile Services for Success: towards a bundled future, Evaluating the Options for Mobile TV and Radio Broadcasting in Western Europe, Lessons from the Japanese and South Korean Mobile Markets: handsets, services, content and pricing, Prospects for the Evolution of 3G and 4G, Scenarios for the Evolution of the Wireless Industry in Europe to 2010 and Beyond, Defending Against Fixed?Mobile Substitution: detailed operator case studies, Accelerating Fixed?Mobile Substitution: detailed operator case studies, Delivering Strategic Benefits with IP Multimedia Subsystem (IMS), The Future of MVNOs in the 3G Era and The World?s Top Ten Wireless Services.

      Alastair is CEO of Sound Partners Ltd. Prior to joining Sound Partners, Alastair reported to Nokia?s European management team and worked with many of Nokia?s customers to implement market firsts ranging from the introduction of prepaid mobile tariffs to new mass-market content services. Previously, Alastair worked in a number of roles for the BT Group, focusing on the evolution of wireless services, networks and technologies. He also contributed to international research and standardisation of GSM, DECT and 3G. Alastair holds BSc and PhD degrees from UMIST, where he was awarded the IEE Prize for top student.

      Mark is Director of Research at Sound Partners Ltd. He previously held a number of marketing and business development roles in Nokia, ultimately becoming responsible for strategy and business development across Europe. Before that, Mark was responsible for business planning at BT Cellnet in the UK, after spending six years at BT in wireless systems research and development. Mark holds BSc and PhD degrees from the University of Leeds, winning the University prize for his research in telecommunications. Mark also holds an MBA, graduating as top student from Henley Management College.

      Rupert Wood (Principal Analyst) directs the Fixed Networks and Services module of the Analysys Research online market intelligence service. He specialises in competition analysis of the European fixed telecoms market and, in particular, the development of broadband services. He has extensive experience in forecasting and sizing European fixed telecoms markets. He is lead author of Western European Fixed Telecoms: market sizings and forecasts 2001?11, Retail VoIP in Western Europe: forecasts 2005?2010, The Telco Product Portfolio beyond 2010, Western European Fixed Telecoms Markets: forecasts 2004?2009, The Impact of Voice over Broadband: forecasts for Western Europe, Maximising Revenues from Broadband: new pricing strategies for European operators, FRIACO: how capacity-based interconnection strengthens the Internet market, Where DTV and Home Storage Will Disintermediate the Internet and Interactive Consumer Broadband: sex, sport and shopping? and co-author of The Telco Organisational Structure beyond 2010. Before joining Analysys, Rupert was a Lecturer at the University of Cambridge.

      About the authors

      Dr Alastair Brydon and Dr Mark Heath are founders of Sound Partners Ltd and authors of over 25 reports from Analysys Research, including Mobile Number Portability (MNP): strategies for operators and regulators, Mobile Operator Performance Benchmarks, The Business Case for WiMAX, Forecasting the Commercial Impact of Wireless VoIP in the USA and Western Europe, Pricing Mobile Services for Success: towards a bundled future, Evaluating the Options for Mobile TV and Radio Broadcasting in Western Europe, Lessons from the Japanese and South Korean Mobile Markets: handsets, services, content and pricing, Prospects for the Evolution of 3G and 4G, Scenarios for the Evolution of the Wireless Industry in Europe to 2010 and Beyond, Defending Against Fixed?Mobile Substitution: detailed operator case studies, Accelerating Fixed?Mobile Substitution: detailed operator case studies, Delivering Strategic Benefits with IP Multimedia Subsystem (IMS), The Future of MVNOs in the 3G Era and The World?s Top Ten Wireless Services.

      Alastair is CEO of Sound Partners Ltd. Prior to joining Sound Partners, Alastair reported to Nokia?s European management team and worked with many of Nokia?s customers to implement market firsts ranging from the introduction of prepaid mobile tariffs to new mass-market content services. Previously, Alastair worked in a number of roles for the BT Group, focusing on the evolution of wireless services, networks and technologies. He also contributed to international research and standardisation of GSM, DECT and 3G. Alastair holds BSc and PhD degrees from UMIST, where he was awarded the IEE Prize for top student.

      Mark is Director of Research at Sound Partners Ltd. He previously held a number of marketing and business development roles in Nokia, ultimately becoming responsible for strategy and business development across Europe. Before that, Mark was responsible for business planning at BT Cellnet in the UK, after spending six years at BT in wireless systems research and development. Mark holds BSc and PhD degrees from the University of Leeds, winning the University prize for his research in telecommunications. Mark also holds an MBA, graduating as top student from Henley Management College.

      Rupert Wood (Principal Analyst) directs the Fixed Networks and Services module of the Analysys Research online market intelligence service. He specialises in competition analysis of the European fixed telecoms market and, in particular, the development of broadband services. He has extensive experience in forecasting and sizing European fixed telecoms markets. He is lead author of Western European Fixed Telecoms: market sizings and forecasts 2001?11, Retail VoIP in Western Europe: forecasts 2005?2010, The Telco Product Portfolio beyond 2010, Western European Fixed Telecoms Markets: forecasts 2004?2009, The Impact of Voice over Broadband: forecasts for Western Europe, Maximising Revenues from Broadband: new pricing strategies for European operators, FRIACO: how capacity-based interconnection strengthens the Internet market, Where DTV and Home Storage Will Disintermediate the Internet and Interactive Consumer Broadband: sex, sport and shopping? and co-author of The Telco Organisational Structure beyond 2010. Before joining Analysys, Rupert was a Lecturer at the University of Cambridge.