Organisations in the wireless industry are faced with several uncertainties that could have a significant impact upon the competitive and technological landscape over the next five to ten years. These include:

• customer demand for 3G services
• service mix and pricing
• fixed?mobile substitution
• fixed?mobile convergence
• wireless infrastructure developments (including Super 3G/LTE, DVB-H, WiMAX and 4G).
• handset and terminal design
• competition, regulation, industry structure and value chain organisation

This report defines and examines three different, yet plausible, scenarios for the evolution of the wireless industry in Europe, in order to assess the implications of these uncertainties for existing and new industry players. The report forecasts ARPU and wireless network usage for each scenario, assessing the impact on network investment. It also considers the implications for the wireless industry value chain as new services and new players emerge. The report provides invaluable support to organisations developing business plans and testing their strategies over the medium- to long-term.

Scenarios for the Evolution of the Wireless Industry in Europe to 2010 and Beyond answers your key questions:

• Amid many current uncertainties, how could the wireless industry realistically change over the next five to ten years?
• How will different outcomes affect organisations within the industry?
• What are the early warning signs of each future scenario?
• What actions can organisations take to steer the industry in the most favourable direction and to mitigate the risk of other outcomes?

Who should read this report?

• Mobile operators: executives and business managers in corporate strategy, product and service development, R&D and public policy can observe the impact of different scenarios on industry structure, service ARPU and usage, identify the key factors in determining which direction the industry takes and plan their business strategy accordingly
  • Wireless infrastructure vendors: executives and product managers in corporate strategy, R&D, sales and marketing can ascertain the factors that will drive increased (or decreased) infrastructure sales, identify the key technologies of the future and map the industry value chain of the future
    • Wireless handset vendors: executives and product managers in corporate strategy, R&D, sales and marketing can gain insights into industry variables that will influence wireless service and wireless technology requirements in mobile devices over the next five to ten years
      • IT hardware and services: corporate strategy, R&D and product management personnel in technology component vendors (such as CPU designers, hard drive and flash memory manufacturers) who act as suppliers to the wireless industry can plan product roadmaps and test capacity planning assumptions based on the report?s scenarios and forecasts. Integration services can assess the extent to which industry and/or technological fragmentation will impact long-term business plans in the wireless industry
        • Media outlets, content providers and broadcasters: corporate planners, CIOs and technologists can assess how new services (such as mobile TV and broadband) may impact the wireless value chain and industry landscape, in order to plan their long-term business strategy
          • Regulators: this report will assist regulators? understanding of the potential changes in the wireless industry value chain caused by fixed?mobile substitution or convergence, the emergence of new players in the industry and the implications for licensing of new technologies (such as WiMAX and DVB-H)

          About the authors

          Dr Alastair Brydon and Dr Mark Heath are founders of Sound Partners Ltd and authors of 18 reports from Analysys Research, including Defending Against Fixed?Mobile Substitution: detailed operator case studies, Accelerating Fixed?Mobile Substitution: detailed operator case studies, Making a Success of Mobile TV and Video, Delivering Strategic Benefits with IP Multimedia Subsystem (IMS), The Future of MVNOs in the 3G Era, Wireless Voice over IP: technical and commercial prospects, The World?s Top Ten Wireless Services, The Role and Impact of WiMAX and Proprietary BWA Technologies, and The Road to Fixed?Mobile Substitution Starts with 3G.

          Prior to joining Sound Partners, Alastair reported to Nokia?s European management team and worked with many of Nokia?s customers to implement market firsts ranging from the introduction of prepaid mobile tariffs to new mass-market content services. Previously, Alastair worked in a number of roles for the BT Group, focusing on the evolution of wireless services, networks and technologies. He also contributed to international research and standardisation of GSM, DECT and 3G. Alastair holds BSc and PhD degrees from UMIST, where he was awarded the IEE Prize for top student.

          Mark has held a number of marketing and business development roles in Nokia, ultimately becoming responsible for strategy and business development across Europe. Previously, Mark was responsible for business planning at BT Cellnet in the UK, after spending six years at BT in wireless systems research and development. Mark holds BSc and PhD degrees from the University of Leeds, winning the University prize for his research in telecommunications. Mark also holds an MBA, graduating as top student from Henley Management College.

          Ross Pow is Managing Director of Analysys Research and is a highly respected adviser to major telecoms industry operators and vendors. Since joining Analysys Research in 2001, he has led the business to a leading position as a trusted source of insight and information on the global telecoms marketplace. Ross has directed or authored over 20 reports, including The World?s Top Ten Wireless Services, Pushing Beyond the Limits of 3G with HSDPA and Other Enhancements, The Role and Impact of WiMAX and Proprietary BWA Technologies, Making a Success of the Mobile Content Value Chain, TV and Video Services on a Mobile Phone: the killer application for 3G?, 3G Launch Strategies: critical decisions on services and technology and Viable Business Models Point to Big Opportunities for Public WLAN. Prior to joining Analysys Research, Ross was CEO of Virtual Business Networks, Europe?s largest online applications service provider for the business community.