With triple play now at the heart of operators' residential portfolios, The Impact of the Multi-service Play: scenarios for future growth assesses the success of multi-play strategies in terms of household spend and adoption. It also examines the changing regulatory and market landscape as players from previously distinct markets, such as broadcasting and telecoms, increasingly compete head to head with their multi-service bundles. Forecasts are provided for the period 2006?11 for triple play and the various double plays in the major Western European countries under two different scenarios: domination by price-driven or value-driven strategies in the marketplace.

The report looks firstly at the drivers of demand for multi-play and at historical adoption rates of double- and triple-play offers before questioning some of the underlying assumptions about customer demand for bundled services. It then examines the positioning of the different types of player in what is principally a supply-driven marketplace. Cablecos, telcos and media players are assessed in terms of their strategic objectives and their ability to capitalise on market opportunities in multi-play.

Two main strategic approaches ? price-driven and value-driven ? are identified and are set in the context of the evolution of telecoms and media markets and accompanying issues of how regulators will legislate in the changing landscape.

Given the many uncertainties surrounding, for example, regulation of next generation networks (NGNs) and the availability of content rights, the two scenarios are modelled to illustrate potential market outcomes at a macroscopic level. In the first scenario, price-driven strategies dominate the market; in the second, value-driven strategies win out. Subscriber splits, ARPU trends and market spend are outlined for each.

The concluding discussion then focuses on different Western European country markets, examining the local variables that will also influence which scenario is realised: the constitution of some markets lends them more readily to one than the other. Some of the wider implications for the market are also discussed.

• What level of market penetration could double- and triple-play services achieve?
• What multi-play strategies are available to service providers and how will market conditions affect the choice of strategy?
• What impact will multi-play strategies have on ARPUs and total market spend?
• Which market strategies will maximise adoption?
• Which players are best placed to benefit from multi-play?