The value of renewable energy projects worldwide was close to $22.3 billion in 2003 and is expected to rise at an average annual growth rate (AAGR) of 13.2% through 2008, to more than $41.4 billion.

Better than half of new capacity comes from large wind turbines. New units average in excess of 1.2 MW each and minimum wind farm capacities are 20 MW.

Photovoltaics capacity was 1.1 GW in 2003 and is projected to grow to 1.8 GW in 2008, an 8.9% AAGR, with revenues climbing to $10.6 billion.

Revenues for small hydro projects were $2.9 billion in 2003, and are expected to increase to $6.0 billion in 2008.

Revenues from geothermal, biogas and ocean energy conversion facilities will rise at AAGRs of 8.2%, 13% and 190%, respectively.

INTRODUCTION

Renewable energy technologies are capturing an increasingly larger market share of new bulk power. The panoply of renewable energy technologies includes wind turbines, photovoltaics, biogas, biomass, geothermal, small hydropower and ocean energy conversion devices.

This Business Review abstracts the results of more than two years of research by BCC analysts into the status and markets for renewable energy conversion equipment. The results are discussed, and quantitative forecasts are provided for world and regional markets for large wind turbines, small hydro, photovoltaics, geothermal, biogas and ocean energy conversion devices. Estimates are provided for the contributions from biomass combustion, small wind turbines, and mini, micro and picohydro.

The energy available from renewable sources exceeds world demand by several orders of magnitude. The central question is the rate at which renewable energy technologies will increase their share of the market for energy production and delivery. This summary goes further by identifying the technologies that will participate in the process of market penetration, and the rate at which they will do so.

Key objectives are to present a comprehensive analysis of the status of a full suite of renewable energy conversion technologies, their market penetration, potential and future directions, and to examine their economic status in relation to conventional power sources.

SCOPE OF STUDY

The report:

Discusses the renewables industry economic environment, technologies and issues
Examines applications, market factors and potential, and projects shipments of capacity and associated revenues through 2008
Projects cumulative and annual new capacity for the various technologies from world, regional and national perspectives
Offers additional research to provide a comprehensive overview of the world photovoltaics market, and estimated the markets for biomass-fueled generation capacity, small wind turbines and mini, micro and picohydro
Discusses the latest technology trends and other factors, such as funding agencies, resources, industry trends, green power, etc.
METHODOLOGY

BCC presents an analysis, by aggregate and individual renewable energy technologies, of the generating capacity installed in 2003. Our estimated values are megawatts installed and project revenues in terms of dollars. A euro/dollar ratio of 1.15 is assumed throughout.

Then, based on our surveys, we analyze the cumulative capacity for each renewable energy technology sector and forecast new installed capacity and annual project revenues for the period 2003 through 2008. We analyze the cumulative generating capacity by renewables relative to the total world power generation capacity and growth trends. Some attention is given to the potential for the repurposing of renewable energy electricity output.

INFORMATION SOURCES

BCC gathered information for this report through numerous primary sources, including equipment manufacturers, project developers, government regulators, entrepreneurs, utility representatives, investor groups, engineering firms, inventors, risk management firms, balance of plant suppliers, financial services organizations, insurers, bankers, permitting specialists, environmental groups, legislators, government regulators, industry consultants, and project developers and owners. In addition, we compiled data from financial and trade publications, government sources, scientific and technical journals, news services, and the World Wide Web.