Independent 5-year telecommunications forecast.
Original telecommunications market research and telecommunications sector trend analysis for the national telecommunications industry.
Competitive intelligence, regional telecommunications company rankings and SWOT analyses on international and domestic telecommunications companies.
The Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the national telecommunications industry.
" The Asia Telecommunications Report is used for benchmarking industry views against BMI's independent forecasts; for market research and analysis of industry trends. It also provides competitive intelligence on leading companies. "
Chi-Wen Tsai, Managing Director, ROHDE & SCHWARZ Taiwan Ltd
Key Benefits of Report
-Benchmark BMI's Independent 5-Year Telecommunications Industry Forecast to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the national telecommunications market.
-Target Business Opportunities & Risks in the Telecommunications Sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments.
-Exploit Latest Competitive Telecommunications Intelligence & company SWOTS on your competitors and peers through company rankings by sales, market share, investments and leading products and services.
Executive Summary
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and trend analysis, covering ICT, fixed-line, mobile and internet markets, and headline news of key industry events from the latest quarter.
Market Overview
At-a-glance outlook of the structure, size and value of the industry, including an overview of key players and a snapshot of regional penetration rates for fixed-line, mobile and internet markets.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI provides a cross-border analysis of telecoms regulatory systems across regional markets, and their investor prospects, discussing the merits and downfalls of each country's business environment, and ranking them in order of competitiveness. The rankings take into account industry factors, such as Market Maturity, Growth Potential, Competitive Environment and Licensing Framework in addition to BMI's political and economic risk ratings.
BMI 5-Year Industry Forecast
Historic data series and 5-year forecasts to end-2012 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.
Fixed-Line Telephony - Telephone Lines ('000); Telephone Lines/100 Inhabitants;
Cellular Telephony - Phone Subscribers ('000); Mobile Phone Subscribers/ 100 Inhabitants; Mobile Phone Subscribers/100 Fixed Line Subscribers;
Internet Markets - Internet Users ('000); Internet Users/100 Inhabitants; Broadband Internet Subscribers ('000); Broadband Internet Subscribers/100 Inhabitants;
Multimedia Markets - PCs ('000); PCs/100 Inhabitants; TV households ('000s); Pay-TV subscribers ('000s); Pay-TV subscribers/100 inhabitants; Cable TV subscribers ('000s); Direct-to-Home Subscribers ('000s)
BMI 5-Year Macroeconomic Forecast
BMI forecasts for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Competitive Landscape & Rankings
Commentary on key operators highlighting ownership structures, latest available revenue figures, market share analysis and ARPU counts.
Company Profiles & SWOTS
Company profiles, including SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats) analyses, fully researched senior executives and contact details, business activity, leading products and services, and a record of all recent foreign direct investments and projects.
The Sector At A Glance
Key Insights On The Telecomunications sector of Vietnam
Strong consumer demand has contributed greatly to making Vietnam's telecoms market, and particularly the wireless sector, one of the region's fastest growing markets. Add to this new-found government support for liberalisation and more competition, and the fact that Vietnam is set to join the WTO family in 2007, and Vietnam's telecoms market becomes a thriving industry. The fact that we project 33% y-o-y growth in Vietnam's fixed-line market this year tells its own story. Whilst in other states in the region migration to mobile and broadband technologies has put a stop to any growth in fixed-line telephony, in Vietnam, the government is still eager to invest in its fixed-line infrastructure and is central to ending VNPT's virtual monopoly. Indeed, only recently FPT Telecom was awarded a wireline licence, and is set to offer high-speed broadband access and IPTV services over its fixed network.
Our projections for mobile growth are even more optimistic. Aided by a continued strong performance from government-owned Viettel and an increase in competition (Vietnam now has a total of seven wireless operators following the launch of CDMA networks from EVN Telecom and Hanoi Telecom), we expect to see y-o-y growth of 110% to the number of mobile subscribers. Reaching 19.5mn by the end of 2006, BMI forecasts that by the end of 2010, there should be in excess of 48mn mobile subscribers. The government's plan to privatise leading operators MobiFone and Vinaphone should transform the industry, and following the government's promised restrictions on foreign ownership, which should start in 2007, we would expect to see more interest from international strategic investors. With Hutchison, through its venture with Hanoi Telecom, already present in Vietnam's mobile market, we also know that Telenor, SingTel and Russia's Altimo are all interested in investing in Vietnam. Other likely investors could come from NTT DoCoMo, SK Telecom, Orascom or even Vodafone.
Despite the huge growth potential of Vietnam's telecoms market and the great strides that the government has made in investing in its infrastructure and in ensuring competition, we still place Vietnam at the bottom of our Business Environment Rankings. The telecoms industry is still basic and dominated by the state, and Vietnam's economic and political risk scores still remain low. However, this could very well change, especially as a result of the government privatising MobiFone and Vinaphone, and could result in a number of regional investors spending heavily in this potential-laden market. A word of caution, however, to Vietnam's operators. The sheer extent of competition has encouraged some innovative marketing and promotional campaigns. The country's leading companies would do well to stay clear of such price wars. Aside from the impact on ARPU rates of many of these campaigns, traffic congestion, as caused by promotional campaigns at certain times of the day, will result in a deterioration in the quality of the country's operator networks.