Independent 5-year telecommunications forecast.
Original telecommunications market research and telecommunications sector trend analysis for the national telecommunications industry.
Competitive intelligence, regional telecommunications company rankings and SWOT analyses on international and domestic telecommunications companies.
The Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the national telecommunications industry.
" The Asia Telecommunications Report is used for benchmarking industry views against BMI's independent forecasts; for market research and analysis of industry trends. It also provides competitive intelligence on leading companies. "
Chi-Wen Tsai, Managing Director, ROHDE & SCHWARZ Taiwan Ltd
Key Benefits of Report
-Benchmark BMI's Independent 5-Year Telecommunications Industry Forecast to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the national telecommunications market.
-Target Business Opportunities & Risks in the Telecommunications Sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments.
-Exploit Latest Competitive Telecommunications Intelligence & company SWOTS on your competitors and peers through company rankings by sales, market share, investments and leading products and services.
Executive Summary
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and trend analysis, covering ICT, fixed-line, mobile and internet markets, and headline news of key industry events from the latest quarter.
Market Overview
At-a-glance outlook of the structure, size and value of the industry, including an overview of key players and a snapshot of regional penetration rates for fixed-line, mobile and internet markets.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI provides a cross-border analysis of telecoms regulatory systems across regional markets, and their investor prospects, discussing the merits and downfalls of each country's business environment, and ranking them in order of competitiveness. The rankings take into account industry factors, such as Market Maturity, Growth Potential, Competitive Environment and Licensing Framework in addition to BMI's political and economic risk ratings.
BMI 5-Year Industry Forecast
Historic data series and 5-year forecasts to end-2012 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.
Fixed-Line Telephony - Telephone Lines ('000); Telephone Lines/100 Inhabitants;
Cellular Telephony - Phone Subscribers ('000); Mobile Phone Subscribers/ 100 Inhabitants; Mobile Phone Subscribers/100 Fixed Line Subscribers;
Internet Markets - Internet Users ('000); Internet Users/100 Inhabitants; Broadband Internet Subscribers ('000); Broadband Internet Subscribers/100 Inhabitants;
Multimedia Markets - PCs ('000); PCs/100 Inhabitants; TV households ('000s); Pay-TV subscribers ('000s); Pay-TV subscribers/100 inhabitants; Cable TV subscribers ('000s); Direct-to-Home Subscribers ('000s)
BMI 5-Year Macroeconomic Forecast
BMI forecasts for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Competitive Landscape & Rankings
Commentary on key operators highlighting ownership structures, latest available revenue figures, market share analysis and ARPU counts.
Company Profiles & SWOTS
Company profiles, including SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats) analyses, fully researched senior executives and contact details, business activity, leading products and services, and a record of all recent foreign direct investments and projects.
The Sector At A Glance
Key Insights On The Telecomunications sector of Estonia
The Estonian National Communications Board (ENCB) has finally produced limited statistical data for Estonia's telecoms market at YE05, although it gives few indications of relative market shares, while revised data has also been forthcoming from the International Telecommunication Union (ITU). We have therefore carefully scrutinised estimates and forecasts for all sectors in light of the new data, and made revisions to the fixed-line, internet and mobile markets. Slight adjustments to population forecasts have also impacted penetration rates. However, the changes have been nominal, and not enough to raise Estonia's growth potential score in BMI's regional telecoms business environment ranking. Nevertheless, the country has moved further up the ranking as it overtook Slovenia and Russia, largely due to the delays to 3G licensing in those countries.
In the fixed-line sector, the decline has been less pronounced than we originally anticipated, as alternative operators had a slightly larger than estimated share of Estonia's fixed-line market and multiple line ownership at Elion was also higher than thought. We now believe penetration stood at 33.0% at YE05, marginally higher than our estimate of 31.8%. BMI continues to forecast that the market will decline gradually year on year, brining penetration down to 31.3% by 2010.
In contrast, internet usage in Estonia was slightly behind BMI's estimates at YE05, with penetration at 51.9%. This contrasts with our estimate of 53.7% but means Estonia is still way ahead of most of its regional peers. Although we have maintained our growth forecasts for 2006 and beyond, alterations to population forecasts mean penetration will near 66% in 2010, slightly below the earlier forecast of 68%. Growth in Elion's broadband user base in Q3 was in line with our expectations following comprehensive revisions to forecasts made in our Q3 report. Broadband penetration is on track to reach 17.5% by YE06 and exceed 23% by 2010.
BMI was right on target with its estimate for the mobile market, with penetration of 107.5% at YE05 only marginally higher than our 107.1% estimate. However, we have made upwards adjustments to forecasts in light of EMT's unexpected focus on the prepaid segment in Q3: over 90% of its net additions in the quarter were prepaid subscribers. We expect EMT will again look to the prepaid segment to drive subscriber growth in the busy pre-Christmas period, but anticipate that growth will tail off again in Q1 as the free special offers associated with the Ratemobiil package launched in May come to an end. The interest shown in the fourth 3G licence, awarded in November to private company Grosson, indicates continued opportunities for growth, and we now anticipate multiple SIM ownership will become even more prevalent. We forecast penetration will increase to over 120% by YE06, exceed 130% in H107 and hit 140% by YE09.