Independent 5-year telecommunications forecast.
Original telecommunications market research and telecommunications sector trend analysis for the national telecommunications industry.
Competitive intelligence, regional telecommunications company rankings and SWOT analyses on international and domestic telecommunications companies.
The Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the national telecommunications industry.
" The Asia Telecommunications Report is used for benchmarking industry views against BMI's independent forecasts; for market research and analysis of industry trends. It also provides competitive intelligence on leading companies. "
Chi-Wen Tsai, Managing Director, ROHDE & SCHWARZ Taiwan Ltd
Key Benefits of Report
-Benchmark BMI's Independent 5-Year Telecommunications Industry Forecast to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the national telecommunications market.
-Target Business Opportunities & Risks in the Telecommunications Sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments.
-Exploit Latest Competitive Telecommunications Intelligence & company SWOTS on your competitors and peers through company rankings by sales, market share, investments and leading products and services.
Executive Summary
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and trend analysis, covering ICT, fixed-line, mobile and internet markets, and headline news of key industry events from the latest quarter.
Market Overview
At-a-glance outlook of the structure, size and value of the industry, including an overview of key players and a snapshot of regional penetration rates for fixed-line, mobile and internet markets.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI provides a cross-border analysis of telecoms regulatory systems across regional markets, and their investor prospects, discussing the merits and downfalls of each country's business environment, and ranking them in order of competitiveness. The rankings take into account industry factors, such as Market Maturity, Growth Potential, Competitive Environment and Licensing Framework in addition to BMI's political and economic risk ratings.
BMI 5-Year Industry Forecast
Historic data series and 5-year forecasts to end-2012 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.
Fixed-Line Telephony - Telephone Lines ('000); Telephone Lines/100 Inhabitants;
Cellular Telephony - Phone Subscribers ('000); Mobile Phone Subscribers/ 100 Inhabitants; Mobile Phone Subscribers/100 Fixed Line Subscribers;
Internet Markets - Internet Users ('000); Internet Users/100 Inhabitants; Broadband Internet Subscribers ('000); Broadband Internet Subscribers/100 Inhabitants;
Multimedia Markets - PCs ('000); PCs/100 Inhabitants; TV households ('000s); Pay-TV subscribers ('000s); Pay-TV subscribers/100 inhabitants; Cable TV subscribers ('000s); Direct-to-Home Subscribers ('000s)
BMI 5-Year Macroeconomic Forecast
BMI forecasts for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Competitive Landscape & Rankings
Commentary on key operators highlighting ownership structures, latest available revenue figures, market share analysis and ARPU counts.
Company Profiles & SWOTS
Company profiles, including SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats) analyses, fully researched senior executives and contact details, business activity, leading products and services, and a record of all recent foreign direct investments and projects.
The Sector At A Glance
Key Insights On The Telecomunications sector of Italy
Things in the Italian telecoms market are not looking quite as rosy as they did when we compiled our Q407 report. Most notably, revised mobile subscriber figures show that growth during 2006 was not as strong as previously thought, proving that Italy's sky-high penetration rates are finally taking their toll on market growth. As a result, we have scaled back both our 2006 figures and our forecasts for 2007 and beyond. BMI now predicts that the market reached a total of 73.2mn subscribers by year-end, after annual growth of just 2%. With penetration now over 127%, annual growth is unlikely to exceed 2% over the next five years. By the end of 2011, we forecast a total user base of 79mn and a penetration rate of 140%, although this is likely to mask a significant number of inactive subscribers.
On a more positive note, mobile operators continue to make strides in the 3G sector, confirming Italy as Europe's leading 3G market. Operator figures suggested a total market of over 15mn at the end of Q306, and we believe that our year-end estimated figure of 16.1mn was comfortably met. This means that 22% of all Italian mobile users were subscribed to or accessing some form of 3G service. This is impressive, given the high proportion of prepaid users (over 90% in Vodafone's case), which in many other countries has acted as a barrier to 3G adoption. By the end of our five-year forecast period in 2011, we predict that 3G users will account for over 60% of the total mobile user base.
Fixed internet services are also growing in popularity, with broadband penetration estimated at 14.2% at the end of 2006. While this remains well below the rates seen in countries such as the UK and France, the number of subscribers in Italy has grown almost four-fold since the end of 2003. Nevertheless, BMI still has concerns over the level of competition in the market. Aside from Fastweb, which controls its own fibre-to-the-home (FTTH) infrastructure, there are few broadband service providers capable of competing with the incumbent, Telecom Italia. The latter's dominance was highlighted in late January when an Italian court ordered the operator to pay EUR60mn in compensation to Fastweb for delaying the provision of unbundled local loop access.
Concerns over the dominance of Telecom Italia, and the continued level of government interference in the operator's affairs, have contributed to Italy's sudden drop down our regional business environment rankings. After reaching second place last quarter, it has tumbled down to fifth, through a combination of reduced growth potential, competition concerns, lack of economic reform and the possibility of future political instability.