Independent 5-year telecommunications forecast.
Original telecommunications market research and telecommunications sector trend analysis for the national telecommunications industry.
Competitive intelligence, regional telecommunications company rankings and SWOT analyses on international and domestic telecommunications companies.
The Report provides industry professionals and researchers, operators, equipment suppliers and vendors, corporate and financial services analysts and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on the national telecommunications industry.
" The Asia Telecommunications Report is used for benchmarking industry views against BMI's independent forecasts; for market research and analysis of industry trends. It also provides competitive intelligence on leading companies. "
Chi-Wen Tsai, Managing Director, ROHDE & SCHWARZ Taiwan Ltd
Key Benefits of Report
-Benchmark BMI's Independent 5-Year Telecommunications Industry Forecast to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the national telecommunications market.
-Target Business Opportunities & Risks in the Telecommunications Sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments.
-Exploit Latest Competitive Telecommunications Intelligence & company SWOTS on your competitors and peers through company rankings by sales, market share, investments and leading products and services.
Executive Summary
Summary of BMI's key industry forecasts and trend analysis, covering ICT, fixed-line, mobile and internet markets, and headline news of key industry events from the latest quarter.
Market Overview
At-a-glance outlook of the structure, size and value of the industry, including an overview of key players and a snapshot of regional penetration rates for fixed-line, mobile and internet markets.
Business Environment Rankings
BMI provides a cross-border analysis of telecoms regulatory systems across regional markets, and their investor prospects, discussing the merits and downfalls of each country's business environment, and ranking them in order of competitiveness. The rankings take into account industry factors, such as Market Maturity, Growth Potential, Competitive Environment and Licensing Framework in addition to BMI's political and economic risk ratings.
BMI 5-Year Industry Forecast
Historic data series and 5-year forecasts to end-2012 for all key industry indicators (see list below), supported by explicit assumptions, plus analysis of key downside risks to the main forecast.
Fixed-Line Telephony - Telephone Lines ('000); Telephone Lines/100 Inhabitants;
Cellular Telephony - Phone Subscribers ('000); Mobile Phone Subscribers/ 100 Inhabitants; Mobile Phone Subscribers/100 Fixed Line Subscribers;
Internet Markets - Internet Users ('000); Internet Users/100 Inhabitants; Broadband Internet Subscribers ('000); Broadband Internet Subscribers/100 Inhabitants;
Multimedia Markets - PCs ('000); PCs/100 Inhabitants; TV households ('000s); Pay-TV subscribers ('000s); Pay-TV subscribers/100 inhabitants; Cable TV subscribers ('000s); Direct-to-Home Subscribers ('000s)
BMI 5-Year Macroeconomic Forecast
BMI forecasts for all headline macroeconomic indicators, including real GDP growth, inflation, fiscal balance, trade balance, current account and external debt.
Competitive Landscape & Rankings
Commentary on key operators highlighting ownership structures, latest available revenue figures, market share analysis and ARPU counts.
Company Profiles & SWOTS
Company profiles, including SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats) analyses, fully researched senior executives and contact details, business activity, leading products and services, and a record of all recent foreign direct investments and projects.
The Sector At A Glance
Key Insights On The Telecomunications Sector of Latvia
Based on an evaluation of the subscriber data published by Latvia's regulator and by the sector's mobile operators, BMI estimates that the number of cellular subscribers increased by 5.2% in the first half of 2007. Subscriber growth in Q107 amounted to 2.7%, while in Q207, the sector grew by 2.5%; this growth was on the back of a 14.7% increase in subscribers during 2006. By the end of 2006, there were 2.184mn mobile subscribers in Latvia, giving the country a penetration rate of 95.8%.
In addition to changes to our Latvian mobile forecast figures, which predict that penetration will rise to above 140% by the end of 2012, in this report we have updated and extended our forecasts for the development of Latvia's fixed-line and broadband markets. We anticipate that the fixed-line market will grow by around 1.4% in 2007 and by 1.2% in 2008. Recent data shows that the number of fixed lines actually increased by 1.5% in 2006 and by 1.7% in 2005; this growth followed several consecutive years of decline. The number of fixed-lines operated by Lattelecom continued to fall in 2006, affected, among by mobile substitution and by increased fixed-line competition. Meanwhile, all of the most recent growth appears to have come from alternative fixed-line operators such as Latvenergo and cable operator Baltkom. We predict that these operators will generate further, albeit gradual growth in the years ahead.
One of the most significant developments within Latvia's telecoms sector in the past few months was the announcement, in August 2007, that TeliaSonera had signed a Memorandum of Understanding with the Republic of Latvia and a Lattelecom management buyout consortium, in order to increase its stake in mobile operator, LMT, from 60.27% to 100%. Under the agreement, TeliaSonera will acquire the Republic of Latvia's 28% stake and Lattelecom's 23% stake in LMT. The MoU also contains plans for TeliaSonera to divest its 49% stake in Lattelecom to the company's management buyout consortium; the Republic of Latvia will also sell its 51% stake in Lattelecom to the company's management.
Following the August announcement, it was revealed in September 2007 that private equity firm Blackstone had been chosen to back the Lattelecom management buyout offer. The total takeover is worth LVL290mn (US$575mn), with Blackstone and a consortium of banks providing financing for the deal. Blackstone will invest LVL90mn (US$178mn) for a 51% stake in Lattelecom, while the remaining 49% of the firm will be held by Lattelecom management and employees. Once the purchase is complete, Blackstone will, among other things, help finance the expansion of Latvia's broadband infrastructure.
Latvia is the lowest ranked of the three Baltic States in BMI's telecoms business environment ranking, and currently sits at the mid-point of our table. The country scores relatively well on competition and regulation issues, although there is room for improvement in these areas. Furthermore, although strong mobile and broadband growth has helped to push Latvia further up our rankings table, the country suffers from limited growth opportunities which stem from its small population and relatively poor economic long-term risk.