Introduction
A survey of 41 utility executives and industry analysts was used to outline three visions of the development of the UK residential retail market. A robust rating and ranking process was used to apportion 40 future events into these three scenarios, which encompass consensual, competitive and managed markets. Utilities must develop strategies that are robust across these potential outcomes.
Scope of this report
- Three possible scenarios of the development of the residential retial market in the UK, based on a survey of utility executives and industry analyts.
- Prediction of market metrics in 2010, including margin sizes, switching rates and market concentrations - also based on the same survey.
- Raw data from the survey, which can be used to build scenarios of the reader's choosing.
Research and analysis highlights
In the consensus scenario the UK government places a strong social commitment on utilities. This is related to high and volatile prices in the wholesale gas and electricity markets. Public discontent with high prices, at a time when OAP fuel poverty is a high profile issue, offers the government a chance to further a populist social agenda.
A 'competition scenario' may be triggered when the major UK energy suppliers decide to improve profitability by aggressively increasing their scale. Coincidentally, failure to ratify the EU constitution leads to a refocus on the implementation of existing directives, leading to a policy environment that supports energy market consolidation.
A 'managed market scenario' may be triggered when the government approves the replacement of the UK's nuclear power stations in order to help meet its CO2 emissions targets and increases ROC prices in order to stimulate further renewables capacity. These aims are not helped when the Emissions Trading Scheme collapses.
Key reasons to read this report
- Understand how industry experts and peers expect the residential retail market to develop.
- Aid strategic planning by using the scenarios as starting points for exploration of challenges that will emerge and how they will best be overcome.
- Use the survey raw data to construct alternative scenarios to be incorporated into scenario planning.
A survey of 41 utility executives and industry analysts was used to outline three visions of the development of the UK residential retail market. A robust rating and ranking process was used to . . .