ANTI-ULCERANT MARKET
The anti-ulcerant class totalled US$17.3 billion in 2005 (+1% YoY) and represented 3.4% of global pharmaceutical sales (estimated to be US$600 billion in 2005). The largest segment of the anti-ulcerant market were the proton pump inhibitors (PPIs), which accounted for around 75% of global anti-ulcerant sales, or US$13 billion in 2005.

However, the sale of PPIs has stagnated due to the patent expiry of AstraZeneca's omeprazole and its subsequent availability over-the-counter. This has been partially offset by the sale of Nexium, AstraZeneca's second-generation PPI, which became the third best selling drug in 2005 and generated global sales of US$4.6 billion, equivalent to 1% of of the global pharmaceutical market.

DIABETES MARKET
We estimate the market for anti-diabetic drugs in 2005 was worth around US$11.8 billion (around 23% of alimentary/metabolic sales), an increase of 12% year on year. Oral anti-diabetic agents accounted for over 60% of sales (US$7 billion) versus injectable insulin (US$4.6 billion). However, the revenue growth of oral anti-diabetic agents continues to slow (+5% YoY) due to the patent expiry of leading brands such as Glucophage, Glucophage XR and Glucovance and a slow down in prescription demand. Revenue growth forecasts have been driven by the sales of two of the largest drug classes, namely glitazones (monotherapy/combinations) and insulin, which continue to deliver high growth of 15% and 20% respectively.

OBESITY MARKET
The market for weight-loss drugs in the US, Europe, and Japan totalled around US$800 million in 2005. However, this market still offers huge opportunity for the development of novel, well-tolerated agents. The global anti-obesity market is forecast to reach sales of over US$2 billion by 2010.

.. Answering key business questions

Based on lansoprazole, TAK-390MR employs a modified- release technology for the treatment of acid-related conditions. What are the clinical benefits and what strategic role does this play in Takeda's future?

Novartis' LAF-23 could be the first DDP-IV inhibitor to reach the market and could be used as 1st-line therapy or in combination with existing treatments. Long-term safety issues remain, but what % of the market could it command?

Unique competitor/product evaluation
A key feature of this report is the unique assessment made of products and companies that evaluates not only their pharmacological profile and clinical benefits, but also assesses their chances of reaching the market. Each product is assessed to see if:

It has new/novel late phase clinical data (Phase II to III);
It has been highlighted in company reports or R&D presentations as key drivers for the company;
It has a novel mechanism of action that make them stand out amongst their competitors - not a 'me too' drug;
Its approval could drastically change the course of treatment of a disease, i.e. a reformulation improving compliance, improved efficacy improving clinical outcome, stop or reverse the course of a disease etc.
It has a relatively high chance of entering the marketplace by 2010.

This chapter covers: Current Market Size
Addressable Patient Population
Current Treatments
Sales Drivers
Sales Breakers Future Treatments - Early Stage
Market Dynamics - Winners and Losers
Key launches to 2011
Competitor Ratio Analysis - Products
Competitor Ratio Analysis - Companies

About the Author
Dr Cheryl Barton is a highly regarded independent consultant with over 15 years research and business analysis experience. Following her senior research positions in academia and seven years with Merck, in which she was responsible for research projects ranging from Alzheimer's Disease to schizophrenia, Dr Barton joined Dutch investment bank ABN Amro NV as a senior equity analyst. At ABN Amro NV she was lead analyst on major pharmaceutical companies such as Roche and Sanofi-Synthélabo, and assessed the potential impact of new drug development on European Stocks.

In 2002, Dr Barton founded a consulting business (www.pharmavision.co.uk) to provide independent, tailor-made, pharmaceutical thematic research to investment houses and pharmaceutical companies. The research reports combine independent scientific analysis with patient-based models to forecast the potential sales growth of key drugs in clinical development. This chapter of New Drug Futures evaluates, compares and contrasts the prospects for the compounds that will revolutionise the pharmaceutical industry over the next 5 years and beyond in the alimentary/metabolic sector. The report includes unique sales forecasts by major product.

The full 400-page report, evaluates, compares and contrasts the prospects for the compounds that will revolutionise the pharmaceutical industry over the next 5 years and beyond. The report covers 8 key therapy areas (alimentary/metabolic, anti-infectives, cancer, cardiovascular, CNS, musculoskeletal, respiratory, vaccines) and includes unique sales forecasts by major product. Click here for more information. This chapter is available separately.

The alimentary/metabolic market is the third largest therapeutic category by sales and generated nearly US$51.3bn (+4% YoY) in 2005. This market spans the sale of a broad range of drugs including; anti-ulcerants (around 34%), drugs for the treatment of gastro-oesophageal reflux disease, anti-diabetics (around 23% of the market) and anti-obesity drugs (around 2%). Sales grew slowly throughout the world with over 50% derived in the US, 25% in Europe and 16% in Japan.