Cancer is the second most common cause of mortality in the developed world and accounts for around 12.5% of all deaths worldwide. By 2020, it is predicted that the number of new cases of cancer diagnosed will rise to 16 million per annum from 11 million in 2002, with cancer-related deaths reaching 10 million each year versus 6.7 million in 2002. Excluding non-melanoma skin cancers, lung cancer is the most common cancer worldwide with breast cancer being the second most prevalent.

There are several new products that, over the next five years, will change the dynamics within the cancer market. These include, among others:

The launch of new biologics for colorectal cancer (Panitumumab - Amgen/Abgenix) and advanced melanoma (Ticilimumab -Pfizer/Abgenix).

The treatment of highly prevalent cancers such as breast, NSCLC and colorectal with a new first-line therapy for breast cancer, lapatinib (GSK), a third-generation oral platinum based therapy, Telcyta (Telik) and an interesting angiogenic kinase inhibitor, vatalanib for the treatment of advanced colorectal cancer from Novartis and Schering AG.

A new generation of prostate cancer drugs for hormone refractory patients such as Acapodene (GTx), satraplatin (Spectrum Pharmaceutical/ GPC Biotech) and ixabepilone (BMS).


.. Answering key business questions

Will GPC/Spectrum Pharmaceuticals be able to fight off generic and new product competition to realise estimated peak sales of US$788 for satraplatin?

Amgen/Abgenix panitumumab's beneficial dosing regime and tolerability profile will revolutionise the treatment of colorectal cancer. Estimated sales peak at US$1015 million in 2012, but what other cancer might it be indicated for?

Unique competitor/product evaluation
A key feature of this report is the unique assessment made of products and companies that evaluates not only their pharmacological profile and clinical benefits, but also assesses their chances of reaching the market. Each product is assessed to see if:

It has new/novel late phase clinical data (Phase II to III);
It has been highlighted in company reports or R&D presentations as key drivers for the company;
It has a novel mechanism of action that make them stand out amongst their competitors - not a 'me too' drug;
Its approval could drastically change the course of treatment of a disease, i.e. a reformulation improving compliance, improved efficacy improving clinical outcome, stop or reverse the course of a disease etc.
It has a relatively high chance of entering the marketplace by 2010.

This chapter covers: Current Market Size
Addressable Patient Population
Current Treatments
Sales Drivers
Sales Breakers Future Treatments - Early Stage
Market Dynamics - Winners and Losers
Key launches to 2011
Competitor Ratio Analysis - Products
Competitor Ratio Analysis - Companies

About the Author
Dr Cheryl Barton is a highly regarded independent consultant with over 15 years research and business analysis experience. Following her senior research positions in academia and seven years with Merck, in which she was responsible for research projects ranging from Alzheimer's Disease to schizophrenia, Dr Barton joined Dutch investment bank ABN Amro NV as a senior equity analyst. At ABN Amro NV she was lead analyst on major pharmaceutical companies such as Roche and Sanofi-Synthélabo, and assessed the potential impact of new drug development on European Stocks.

In 2002, Dr Barton founded a consulting business (www.pharmavision.co.uk) to provide independent, tailor-made, pharmaceutical thematic research to investment houses and pharmaceutical companies. The research reports combine independent scientific analysis with patient-based models to forecast the potential sales growth of key drugs in clinical development. This chapter of New Drug Futures evaluates, compares and contrasts the prospects for the compounds that will revolutionise the pharmaceutical industry over the next 5 years and beyond in the cancer sector. The report includes unique sales forecasts by major product.

The full 400-page report, evaluates, compares and contrasts the prospects for the compounds that will revolutionise the pharmaceutical industry over the next 5 years and beyond. The report covers 8 key therapy areas (alimentary/metabolic, anti-infectives, cancer, cardiovascular, CNS, musculoskeletal, respiratory, vaccines) and includes unique sales forecasts by major product. Click here for more information. This chapter is available separately.

In 2005, we estimate the global anticancer market was worth over US$42 billion (+12.6% YoY) accounting for 7% of global pharmaceutical sales (US$600 billion). Global sales included the sale of cytotoxics, innovative therapies, anti-hormonals plus supportive care (such as anti-emetics). This final segment accounted for nearly half of global sales.

By 2010, the global cancer market is expected to generate sales in excess of US$60 billion due to growth in the sales of existing innovative products and the launch of nearly 60 new products which will account for around 30% of total drug launches. These will offset the decline in sales of cytotoxics and anti-hormonals, which face generic sales erosion, and the uptake of newer products in preference to these older agents.