Stroke is the third leading cause of death in the major pharmaceutical markets. It is estimated that there were over 1.75 million stroke cases in the US (0.7 million) and Europe (1.05 million) each year. However only between 2%-8% of patients receive treatment on time.

Unstable angina (UA) and non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) are the leading cause of death in the Western world. Both are conditions of acute coronary syndrome (ACS), are recognised to be among the most frequent and important clinical manifestations of CAD.

Atrial fibrillation affects 2.5 million people in the US alone and is estimated to account for between 15 and 20% of all strokes and causes more than 37,000 deaths a year. Prevalence is expected to reach 5.6 million in the US by 2050. In the UK, AF affects 5% of the over 65 population and 10% of over 75s.

.. Answering key business questions

Three drugs in this analysis have the potential to generate sales in excess of US$1 billion - what are they?

What advantage will Bayer's BAY 59-7939 have over low molecular weight heparins for the treatment of thrombosis/stroke? Does it have the potential to succeed where Exanta failed?

AstraZeneca still has regulatory hurdles to overcome with its novel free-radical trapping neuroprotective agent Cerovive for stroke, but what are the potential sales rewards?

Unique competitor/product evaluation
A key feature of this report is the unique assessment made of products and companies that evaluates not only their pharmacological profile and clinical benefits, but also assesses their chances of reaching the market. Each product is assessed to see if:

It has new/novel late phase clinical data (Phase II to III);
It has been highlighted in company reports or R&D presentations as key drivers for the company;
It has a novel mechanism of action that make them stand out amongst their competitors - not a 'me too' drug;
Its approval could drastically change the course of treatment of a disease, i.e. a reformulation improving compliance, improved efficacy improving clinical outcome, stop or reverse the course of a disease etc.
It has a relatively high chance of entering the marketplace by 2010.

This chapter covers: Current Market Size
Addressable Patient Population
Current Treatments
Sales Drivers
Sales Breakers Future Treatments - Early Stage
Market Dynamics - Winners and Losers
Key launches to 2011
Competitor Ratio Analysis - Products
Competitor Ratio Analysis - Companies

About the Author
Dr Cheryl Barton is a highly regarded independent consultant with over 15 years research and business analysis experience. Following her senior research positions in academia and seven years with Merck, in which she was responsible for research projects ranging from Alzheimer's Disease to schizophrenia, Dr Barton joined Dutch investment bank ABN Amro NV as a senior equity analyst. At ABN Amro NV she was lead analyst on major pharmaceutical companies such as Roche and Sanofi-Synthélabo, and assessed the potential impact of new drug development on European Stocks.

In 2002, Dr Barton founded a consulting business (www.pharmavision.co.uk) to provide independent, tailor-made, pharmaceutical thematic research to investment houses and pharmaceutical companies. The research reports combine independent scientific analysis with patient-based models to forecast the potential sales growth of key drugs in clinical development. This chapter of New Drug Futures evaluates, compares and contrasts the prospects for the compounds that will revolutionise the pharmaceutical industry over the next 5 years and beyond in the cardiovascular sector. The report includes unique sales forecasts by major product.

The full 400-page report, evaluates, compares and contrasts the prospects for the compounds that will revolutionise the pharmaceutical industry over the next 5 years and beyond. The report covers 8 key therapy areas (alimentary/metabolic, anti-infectives, cancer, cardiovascular, CNS, musculoskeletal, respiratory, vaccines) and includes unique sales forecasts by major product. Click here for more information. This chapter is available separately.

Cardiovascular (CV) disease remains the number one killer in the US and Europe. In 2005, global sales of CV drugs were estimated to be worth around US$72.7 billion and accounted for around 12% of the world's total drug expenditure (US$600 billion). The majority of sales are derived from the US (around 52%) which has seen considerable growth (10.5% YoY) due to the uptake of new and more expensive medicines and more aggressive treatment of chronic conditions earlier during the course of the disease. Together Europe and Japan account for around 44% of sales with single digit growth.

By 2010, sales of CV drugs are expected to rise to around US$100 billion as the market continues to grow. The main drivers are an increase in diabetic and obese populations and the continued investment of pharmaceutical companies in the development of new classes of CV drugs to treat and prevent chronic CV conditions, as well as addressing areas of high unmet clinical need. The development of new imaging agents to improve CV diagnosis and treatment and improvement in surgical techniques associated with the treatment of CV diseases is critical to market expansion.