CNS disorders represent more than 15% of the global cost of disease. For example, costs of over $100 billion per annum makes Alzheimer's the third most expensive disease in the USA. In addition, they are the leading cause of disability; at any one time 1.5 billion people suffer with a brain or spinal disorder.

CNS diseases and disorders represent the largest and fastest growing area of unmet medical need. Over 1.5 billion people worldwide, including over 100 million people in the US, suffer from CNS diseases or disorders. Key prevalence indicators:

Alzheimer's disease: Almost 5 million individuals in the US alone currently suffer from AD and the US Alzheimer's Association estimates that by 2025, over 22 million people worldwide will be afflicted with AD.

Dementia: Approximately 18 million people suffer with dementia worldwide and this figure is expected to increase to 34 million by 2025.

Muiltiple sclerosis: It is estimated that approximately 3 million live with MS worldwide; over 350,000 Americans (approximately 1 in 1000 aged over 30 years) live with multiple sclerosis.

Whilst we anticipate antidepressants will to continue to command the largest percentage of the CNS market, revenue growth will slow as many of the leading brands face generic competition. Newer products such as DVS 233 (Wyeth) and saredutant (sanofi-aventis) will enter the market from 2006 and enable new pharma players to penetrate this multi billion dollar arena.

.. Answering key business questions

What marketing challenges does Wyeth face if they are to migrate Effecor patients to DVS 233 before generic competition starts in 2008?

Pfizer is well placed to become a player in the insomnia market with indiplon - what are the estimated financial rewards?

Unique competitor/product evaluation
A key feature of this report is the unique assessment made of products and companies that evaluates not only their pharmacological profile and clinical benefits, but also assesses their chances of reaching the market. Each product is assessed to see if:

It has new/novel late phase clinical data (Phase II to III);
It has been highlighted in company reports or R&D presentations as key drivers for the company;
It has a novel mechanism of action that make them stand out amongst their competitors - not a 'me too' drug;
Its approval could drastically change the course of treatment of a disease, i.e. a reformulation improving compliance, improved efficacy improving clinical outcome, stop or reverse the course of a disease etc.
It has a relatively high chance of entering the marketplace by 2010.

This chapter covers: Current Market Size
Addressable Patient Population
Current Treatments
Sales Drivers
Sales Breakers Future Treatments - Early Stage
Market Dynamics - Winners and Losers
Key launches to 2011
Competitor Ratio Analysis - Products
Competitor Ratio Analysis - Companies

About the Author
Dr Cheryl Barton is a highly regarded independent consultant with over 15 years research and business analysis experience. Following her senior research positions in academia and seven years with Merck, in which she was responsible for research projects ranging from Alzheimer's Disease to schizophrenia, Dr Barton joined Dutch investment bank ABN Amro NV as a senior equity analyst. At ABN Amro NV she was lead analyst on major pharmaceutical companies such as Roche and Sanofi-Synthélabo, and assessed the potential impact of new drug development on European Stocks.

In 2002, Dr Barton founded a consulting business (www.pharmavision.co.uk) to provide independent, tailor-made, pharmaceutical thematic research to investment houses and pharmaceutical companies. The research reports combine independent scientific analysis with patient-based models to forecast the potential sales growth of key drugs in clinical development.
This chapter of New Drug Futures evaluates, compares and contrasts the prospects for the compounds that will revolutionise the pharmaceutical industry over the next 5 years and beyond in the CNS sector. The report includes unique sales forecasts by major product.

The full 400-page report, evaluates, compares and contrasts the prospects for the compounds that will revolutionise the pharmaceutical industry over the next 5 years and beyond. The report covers 8 key therapy areas (alimentary/metabolic, anti-infectives, cancer, cardiovascular, CNS, musculoskeletal, respiratory, vaccines) and includes unique sales forecasts by major product. Click here for more information. This chapter is available separately.

The Central Nervous System (CNS) market is the second largest therapeutic category and is one of the fastest growing. We forecast the global CNS market generated sales of US$68.7 billion in 2005 (+6.1% from 2004). The majority of sales were derived from the US (c. 66%) although sales growth was stronger ex-US.

Within this market the largest segments by sales are: antidepressants (23% market share), antipsychotics (22.6%) and anti-epileptics (16.8%). Some of the fastest growing segments are: sleep disorders (+14.8% (YoY), attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (+10.8% YoY), Alzheimer's disease (+10.7% YoY) and antipsychotics (+10.2% YoY).