ANTI-RHEUMATOID DRUG SALES
We estimate the rheumatoid arthritis (RA) market was worth around US$5.9 billion in 2005 and is expected to reach nearly US$7 billion by 2008 and over US$9 billion by 2013.

Rheumatoid arthritis was estimated to affect more than 21 million people worldwide in 2004. According to the American College of Rheumatology, approximately two million US citizens suffer from RA where around 75% are women with a peak age group of between 20 and 45 years old.

Rheumatoid arthritis is a progressive, systemic autoimmune disease characterised by inflammation of the membrane lining in joints. This inflammation causes a loss of joint shape and function, resulting in pain, stiffness and swelling, ultimately leading to irreversible joint destruction and disability. In more severe cases of RA the eyes, lungs or blood vessels may be involved. RA may also shorten life expectancy by affecting major organ systems and after 10 years, less than 50% of patients can function normally.

OSTEOPOROSIS
We forecast the osteoporosis market was worth nearly US$6 billion in 2005, with around 80% of sales being derived in the US. It has been forecast to be worth between US$8-10 billion by 2010 and nearly US$14 billion by 2014.

Osteoporosis was estimated to affect approximately 100 million people worldwide in 2005. Approximately eight million US women are estimated to have osteoporosis and 22 million are at risk of the disease.

.. Answering key business questions

J&J/Schering Plough could have a winner with CNTO148 for rheumatoid arthritis, but how will it fare against competitive products from Roche and Celltech/UCB?

TAP's novel xanthine oxidase inhibitor marks a new approach to the treatment of gout and shows clinical benefits over the generically available allopurinol. With no direct competition prospects are good - so what are its projected sales over the next 6 years?

Amgen's osteoporosis treatment denosumab, currently in Phase III, could be the first to market in a new class of fully-humanised MAb therapies. But with a highly- competitive market and a number of regulatory hurdles to cross, what are its chances of launch?

Unique competitor/product evaluation
A key feature of this report is the unique assessment made of products and companies that evaluates not only their pharmacological profile and clinical benefits, but also assesses their chances of reaching the market. Each product is assessed to see if:

It has new/novel late phase clinical data (Phase II to III);
It has been highlighted in company reports or R&D presentations as key drivers for the company;
It has a novel mechanism of action that make them stand out amongst their competitors - not a 'me too' drug;
Its approval could drastically change the course of treatment of a disease, i.e. a reformulation improving compliance, improved efficacy improving clinical outcome, stop or reverse the course of a disease etc.
It has a relatively high chance of entering the marketplace by 2010.

This chapter covers: Current Market Size
Addressable Patient Population
Current Treatments
Sales Drivers
Sales Breakers Future Treatments - Early Stage
Market Dynamics - Winners and Losers
Key launches to 2011
Competitor Ratio Analysis - Products
Competitor Ratio Analysis - Companies

About the Author
Dr Cheryl Barton is a highly regarded independent consultant with over 15 years research and business analysis experience. Following her senior research positions in academia and seven years with Merck, in which she was responsible for research projects ranging from Alzheimer's Disease to schizophrenia, Dr Barton joined Dutch investment bank ABN Amro NV as a senior equity analyst. At ABN Amro NV she was lead analyst on major pharmaceutical companies such as Roche and Sanofi-Synthélabo, and assessed the potential impact of new drug development on European Stocks.

In 2002, Dr Barton founded a consulting business (www.pharmavision.co.uk) to provide independent, tailor-made, pharmaceutical thematic research to investment houses and pharmaceutical companies. The research reports combine independent scientific analysis with patient-based models to forecast the potential sales growth of key drugs in clinical development. This chapter of New Drug Futures evaluates, compares and contrasts the prospects for the compounds that will revolutionise the pharmaceutical industry over the next 5 years and beyond in the musculoskeletal sector. The report includes unique sales forecasts by major product.

The full 400-page report, evaluates, compares and contrasts the prospects for the compounds that will revolutionise the pharmaceutical industry over the next 5 years and beyond. The report covers 8 key therapy areas (alimentary/metabolic, anti-infectives, cancer, cardiovascular, CNS, musculoskeletal, respiratory, vaccines) and includes unique sales forecasts by major product. Click here for more information. This chapter is available separately.

The musculoskeletal market is the sixth largest therapeutic category by sales and generated over US$228 billion (+0.8% YoY) in 2005. Sales grew strongly in the US and Europe which accounted for 54% and 23% of sales however, sales have slowed significantly, largely due to the withdrawal of a number of COX-2 inhibitors during 2004 and early 2005.

Two of the largest segments of the musculoskeletal market are rheumatoid arthritis (anti-rheumatics) and osteoporosis (bone calcium regulators). The remaining sales are derived from the treatment of a mixture of aetiologies such as anti-inflammatory conditions and muscle relaxants.