Usage has changed greatly and, just like other communication technologies, no one ever imagined the Internet's success, with P2P exchanges, blogs, video content sites like YouTube, etc.

The emergence of new uses, the increase in content, the success of some applications progressively puts into question the role played by a handful of players and agreements governing traffic exchanges, which have become asymmetrical. In particular, operators feel that other types of players are now taking advantage of a network in which they never invested. In addition, the changes required to provide increasingly better performance are costly, and the potential for changes in usage portend even greater investment in infrastructure. In the eyes of operators, the question of sharing the costs has become essential.

The objective of this study is to identify the actual risk of Internet network saturation. What is the outlook for Internet traffic changes and what are the consequences on infrastructure? What players will be the most involved? This report presents the strategic options that could be implemented by operators.

Network Saturation in brief
-Condition of telecommunications network infrastructure: access, transport, interconnection
-Changes in usage and internet traffic and capacity growth needs
-Network congestion risk analysis
-Network development versus content development: what level of investment?
-Operators' strategy: “pure player” model or diversification policy

Access networks
-MAN / WAN
-GIX
-Peering
-Transit
-Hosting
-Collocation
-Unicast/Multicast
-P2P
-CDN

Players studied
-Akamai
-AMS-IX
-Completel
-FLAG Telecom
-Iliad
-Infonet
-Interoute
-iPlayer
-OVH
-Telehouse
-YouTube
Key Questions

-What bandwidth for what types of consumer applications?
-Who will benefit from Internet traffic changes in the data transmission market?
-Is CDN the best solution for increasing video flow?
-How can congestion risk be avoided at the interconnection nodes?
-Are new negotiations on peering agreements inevitable?
-Will technical changes compensate for network saturation risks?
-Who should pay for the cost of additional Internet traffic?
-Will network infrastructure investment allow for monetizing content?
Who should read this report?

Telecom Operators
-Identify the impact of network infrastructure congestion on the operator model
-Analyse the consequences of a diversification policy towards content distribution
-Understand the remaining room to manoeuvre in terms of investment

Content providers
-Analyse the implications of rate setting by network operators on traffic
-Understand the impact of operator diversification on CDN

Technical solution providers (hosting, collocation, etc.)
-Understand changes in the needs of network operators
-Anticipate new commercial outlets

Investors and analysts
-Understand players' positioning in the value chain and their level of future investment
-Anticipate the next moves in the telecom network ecosystem