The Next Generation Network (NGN) - these are magic words to many in the telecommunications business. They invoke an image of a new network that will correct all of the problems of the existing network (s). The nature of the problems to be corrected and the resulting nature of the envisioned new network depend largely on the background, training, and beliefs of the observer. Maybe this is a relativistic view of NGN! These words also invoke images of new opportunities for equipment sales, new service revenue opportunities, and improved operating efficiencies.

A major question to be considered when thinking about the NGN is the impact of the coming changes on the traditional carriers, particularly the RBOCs. We must evaluate the unprecedented changes now taking place in the network as they will impact the RBOCs who have a vast, undepreciated investment in the current, but now obsolete, technologies. They, uniquely of all players in the communications game, will be stressed by the need to continue to earn on their embedded investments, while making major investments to replace their network assets, and while making substantial investments to complete their network structures (e.g., SBC buying AT&T..

This report uses an empirical approach to forecasting the NGN. It first reviews the current market drivers of the network and our forecasts of market impacts that will likely change the directions of major telecommunications companies. It also considers what the major players are now doing or are saying they are going to be doing (how they are investing.) We will consider the direction of major standards bodies in a separate chapter (the author has a great respect for their activities, having been a founder and vice chairman of T1M1 for its formative years) but our emphasis will be on following investments, market influences, and business drivers.

The first section of the report describes how the very nature of the network has been changing since the beginning of this decade and how that change is accelerating. In addition to a change in the nature of the network, its growth pattern is changing. The growth of the network (in terms of traffic carried) has continued through the telecommunications slowdown of the early 2000's. The overbuilt condition of our backbone infrastructure kept this growth from being translated into accelerating equipment sales. Now we see a new driver - FTTP - that will cause the growth to accelerate even more, and again the nature of the traffic is going to further change.

There are numerous conferences and standards efforts underway projecting what the NGN will be. But as noted before, the outcomes of these efforts will likely depend on the participants and their built-in prejudices rather than on any rationally derived likelihood of the design of the NGN. While some very elegant solutions will be developed to problems generated by trying to visualize the NGN to fit a given set of preconceived notions, it is problematic as to the utility of these solutions.

In addition to the main purpose of the report, i.e., forecasting and describing the Next Generation Network, this report

-Identifies major technologies and/or services that are driving change toward the NGN, including FTTP, IPTV, R-OADMs, and VoIP.
-The report includes extensive descriptions of each of these technologies/services as well as market forecasts for each.
-The report describes the change in the network in terms of traffic carried and type of traffic, and provides extensive forecasts of traffic by type.
-The current competitive market situation is described and analyzed.
-The report includes extensive material on the impact of the NGN drivers on the RBOCs, and the increasingly difficult situation surrounding the RBOCs.
-The new competitors - Google, Yahoo, MSN and others are identified in their threat to the traditional network competitors. The Internet service providers become major network players, because they are the ones that are actually making money on the network!
-Describes how these new competitors could in fact become major network players in the development of the NGN. CAN the RBOCs BE GOOGLED UP?