The good times are back in the mobile communications industry. We?re hurtling towards the two billionth customer. European and Asia operators are launching 3G services. And new network technologies promise to deliver true mobile broadband on the back of relatively modest investments.

But it?s not all plain sailing for today?s mobile operators, network vendors and handset manufacturers. Disruptive technologies and start-up operators are threatening to undermine mobile business models. If Internet, email and VOIP business models come into play, the industry could see a downward spiral of revenues, profits and shareholder returns. In this year?s Mobile Industry Outlook, Informa Telecom & Media?s leading experts discuss how they see the industry evolving in 2005 and 2006.

Written by 27 of our leading analysts and researchers Mobile Industry Outlook 2005/6 report answers the most significant questions facing today's mobile operators, network vendors and handset manufacturers, including:

• How big a threat is wi-max?
• When will fixed-mobile convergence kick in?
• Where are the best opportunities globally for operators to expand their footprints?
• Which markets will grow fastest?
• Will 3G result in a surge in ARPU levels?
• Which mobile entertainment services are most likely to succeed?
• Can Nokia regain its momentum after a difficult two years of sliding market share?

Concise, accurate and relevant Mobile Industry Outlook 2005/6 is ideal reading for executives looking for a fast way to get up-to-speed with current thinking and likely industry development.

Key report coverage includes:

3G Markets and Technology

Until the end of 2003, the failure to launch 3G networks by operators around the world was met with disappointment and a great deal of consternation, chiefly from industry commentators and the press. As 2005 gets underway the perception of the industry seems to have changed. NICK LANE and DEVINE KOFILOTO look at what the industry now expects from 3G and the performance of pioneers, such as Hutchison Telecom.

Services and Applications

SMS still rules the roost in terms of mobile data revenues in Europe and most of Asia. But signs are finally increasing that there is reason to be optimistic about non-SMS data services growth such as the download of ring tones, logos and games. JESSICA SANDIN and RICHARD JESTY identify the leading trends in the mobile entertainment world today.

Mobile TV and Video

It is still early days for mobile TV services, and the jury is still out as to whether or not there is a viable business model, but plenty of operators seem to be jumping on the bandwagon. JESSICA SANDIN says that main interest tends to be around mobile broadcast using technologies such as DVB-H or DMB.

Mergers and Acquisitions

The ?irrational exuberance? that drove the high prices paid during the telecoms boom in the late nineties is unlikely to return in the near future, but market evaluations remain strong. M&A activity is now principally seen for one of two reasons. Either an operator needs to bolster flagging revenues at home by expanding into emerging markets, or it needs to consolidate its position at home. PAUL LAMBERT and GAVIN PATTERSON look at how recent activity highlights the premium attached to harnessing exponential growth.

Software and Devices

The mobile handset market is enjoying a period of sales growth with global handset shipments breaching the 600-million mark for the first time in 2004. Developing markets are becoming more mature, with a greater choice of GSM and CDMA carriers in markets like Latin America. In more developed markets like Japan and Europe it is technological innovation that is helping to drive sales. MICHAEL CARROLL, DAVID MCQUEEN and MALIK SAADI discuss whether the growth can be maintained, if Nokia will remain top-dog in 2005, and the status of 3G chipset and device development.

Eastern Europe

Driven by the explosive expansion of the Russian market, subscriber growth in central and eastern Europe continues apace. The total number of subscribers reached 170 million at the end of 2004, up from 144.2 million at the end of August. For full-year 2003 the total number of subscribers in the region grew 46.5%, the second-highest regional growth in percentage terms after Africa (excluding the Middle East). In comparison, the global industry grew 21.2% in 2003, while western Europe grew less than 10%. TAWANDA CHIHOTA and KESTER MANN look at the main growth markets and opportunities in the year ahead.

Published: February 2005