Table of Contents
The Cancer Market Outlook to 2012
Executive Summary 12
Patient potential 12
Global market analysis 13
Pipeline analysis 14
Competitive landscape 15
Chapter 1 Epidemiology of cancer 18
Summary 18
Introduction 19
Overview 19
Lung cancer 21
Overview 21
Diagnosis, treatment and management 22
Epidemiology 24
Forecast epidemiology 26
Colorectal cancer 27
Overview 27
Diagnosis, treatment and management 28
Epidemiology 29
Forecast epidemiology 31
Breast cancer 32
Overview 32
Diagnosis, treatment and management 33
Epidemiology 34
Forecast epidemiology 35
Ovarian cancer 37
Overview 37
Diagnosis, treatment and management 38
Epidemiology 38
Forecast epidemiology 39
Uterine and cervical cancer 41
Overview 41
Diagnosis, treatment and management 41
Epidemiology 42
Forecast epidemiology 43
Leukemia 45
Overview 45
Diagnosis, treatment and management 46
Epidemiology 47
Forecast epidemiology 48
Prostate cancer 50
Overview 50
Diagnosis, treatment and management 50
Epidemiology 52
Forecast epidemiology 54
Pancreatic cancer 55
Overview 55
Diagnosis, treatment and management 55
Epidemiology 56
Forecast prevalence 58
Lymphomas 59
Overview 59
Diagnosis, treatment and management 60
Epidemiology 61
Forecast prevalence 62
Chapter 2 Global market analysis 66
Summary 66
Introduction 67
Market analysis by country 67
Trends in generics usage and licensing 69
Market analysis by drug class 70
Leading brands dynamics 72
Key events in the cancer market 74
Antineoplastics 77
Competitive dynamics of antineoplastics 77
Leading brands of antineoplastics 81
Antineoplastic MAb market analysis 83
Market dynamics 83
Key brands analysis 84
Vinka alkaloid market analysis 99
Market dynamics 99
Key brands analysis 99
Anti-metabolites 108
Market dynamics 108
Key brands analysis 108
Other antineoplastics 118
Market dynamics 118
Antineoplastic sales forecasts to 2012 128
Immunostimulants 129
Competitive dynamics of immunostimulants 129
Leading brands of immunostimulants 133
Interferon market analysis 135
Market dynamics 135
Key brands analysis 137
Other immunostimulants 140
Market dynamics 140
Key brand analysis 140
Immunostimulant sales forecasts to 2012 143
Cytostatic hormonal therapies 145
Competitive dynamics of cytostatic hormonal therapies 145
Leading brands of cytostatic hormonal therapies 147
LHRH agonists market analysis 150
Market dynamics 150
Key brands analysis 151
Aromatase inhibitors 155
Market dynamics 155
Key brands analysis 155
Anti-estrogens 163
Market dynamics 163
Key brand analysis 164
Anti-androgens 165
Cytostatic hormonal therapy sales forecasts to 2012 168
Total cancer market sales forecasts to 2012 169
Chapter 3 Pipeline analysis 172
Summary 172
Introduction 173
Key trends in R&D 173
Need for drugs with improved tumor selectivity 174
Increased focus on cancer vaccine pipeline 175
Cost containment policies emerging as barrier for drug development 175
The cancer pipeline 176
Leading drugs in development 178
Profiles of key pipeline products 179
Phase III compounds 179
Enzastaurin 179
BiovaxID 181
HuMax-CD20 (ofatumumab) 183
Recentin (cediranib) 185
Zactima (vandetanib) 186
Recently approved/marketed drugs 188
Tasigna (nilotinib) 188
Gardasil and Cervarix 190
Vectibix (panitumumab) 194
Nexavar (sorafenib) 196
Sutent (sunitinib) 197
Tykerb (lapatinib) 200
Pipeline forecasts 203
Factors affecting forecasts 203
Cancer therapeutic area forecasts 203
Chapter 4 Competitive landscape 206
Summary 206
Introduction 207
Company market shares 207
Roche 211
Overview 211
Sales focus by drug class 211
Marketed product portfolio 212
R&D pipeline analysis 214
Strategic and growth analysis 216
Drivers of growth 216
Resistors of growth 216
Amgen 217
Overview 217
Sales focus by drug class 217
Marketed product portfolio 218
R&D pipeline analysis 219
Strategic and growth analysis 220
Drivers of growth 220
Resistors of growth 221
Sanofi-Aventis 222
Overview 222
Sales focus by drug class 222
Marketed product portfolio 223
R&D pipeline analysis 224
Strategic and growth analysis 225
Drivers of growth 225
Resistors of growth 225
AstraZeneca 227
Overview 227
Sales focus by drug class 227
Marketed product portfolio 228
R&D pipeline analysis 230
Strategic and growth analysis 231
Drivers of growth 231
Resistors of growth 232
Novartis 233
Overview 233
Sales focus by drug class 233
Marketed product portfolio 234
R&D pipeline analysis 235
Strategic and growth analysis 237
Drivers of growth 237
Resistors of growth 238
Pfizer 239
Overview 239
Sales focus by drug class 239
Marketed product portfolio 240
R&D pipeline analysis 242
Strategic and growth analysis 243
Drivers of growth 243
Resistors of growth 244
Schering-Plough 245
Overview 245
Sales focus by drug class 245
Marketed product portfolio 246
R&D pipeline analysis 248
Strategic and growth analysis 249
Drivers of growth 249
Resistors of growth 249
Eli Lilly 250
Overview 250
Sales focus by drug class 250
Marketed product portfolio 251
R&D pipeline analysis 252
Strategic and growth analysis 253
Drivers of growth 253
Resistors of growth 253
Chapter 5 Appendix 256
IMS data 256
Antineoplastic and immunomodulating agents 256
L1: Cytostatics 256
L2: Cytostatic hormone therapy 256
L3: Immunostimulating agents 256
Licensing status as per IMS Health 256
Original brand 256
Other brand 257
Licensed brand 257
Not-coded product 257
Unbranded/ generic product 257
Index 258
List of Figures
Figure 1.1: Overview of cancer etiology 20
Figure 2.2: Worldwide cancer market share by geography, 2006 68
Figure 2.3: Sales of cancer brands by license type, 2005-06 69
Figure 2.4: Competitive dynamics of the global cancer market by drug class, 2006 71
Figure 2.5: Competitive dynamics of the leading brands in the global cancer market, 2005-06 73
Figure 2.6: Competitive dynamics of the major antineoplastic classes in the global cancer market,
2005-06 80
Figure 2.7: Competitive dynamics of leading brands in the antineoplastic market, 2005-06 83
Figure 2.8: Competitive dynamics of the major immunostimulant classes in the global cancer
market, 2005-06 132
Figure 2.9: Competitive dynamics of the leading brands in the global cancer immunostimulant
market, 2005-06 135
Figure 2.10: Competitive dynamics of the major cytostatic hormonal therapy classes in the global
cancer market, 2005-06 147
Figure 2.11: Competitive dynamics of the leading brands in the global cytostatic hormonal therapy
market, 2005-06 149
Figure 3.12: Driver and resistors in cancer R&D, 2007 174
Figure 3.13: Oncology pipeline by indication and stage of development, 2006 176
Figure 3.14: Recently launched products and late-stage R&D compounds indicated for the
treatment of cancer, 2006 178
Figure 4.15: Competitive dynamics of the leading players in the global cancer market, 2006 209
Figure 4.16: Roche's cancer sales by drug class, 2006 211
Figure 4.17: Amgen's cancer sales by drug class, 2006 217
Figure 4.18: Sanofi-Aventis' cancer sales by drug class, 2006 222
Figure 4.19: AstraZeneca's cancer sales by drug class, 2006 227
Figure 4.20: Novartis' cancer sales by drug class, 2006 233
Figure 4.21: Pfizer's cancer sales by drug class, 2006 239
Figure 4.22: Schering-Plough's cancer sales by drug class, 2006 245
Figure 4.23: Lilly's cancer sales by drug class, 2006 250
List of Tables
Table 1.1: Estimated prevalence of lung cancer across the seven major markets, 2006 24
Table 1.2: Forecast epidemiology of lung cancer across the seven major markets, 2006-12 26
Table 1.3: Estimated epidemiology of colorectal cancer across the seven major markets, 2006 30
Table 1.4: Forecast epidemiology of colorectal cancer across the seven major markets, 2006-1231
Table 1.5: Estimated epidemiology of breast cancer across the seven major markets, 2006 35
Table 1.6: Forecast epidemiology of breast cancer across the seven major markets, 2006-12 36
Table 1.7: Estimated epidemiology of ovarian cancer across the seven major markets, 2006 39
Table 1.8: Forecast epidemiology of ovarian cancer across the seven major markets, 2006-12 40
Table 1.9: Estimated epidemiology of uterine cancer across the seven major markets, 2006 42
Table 1.10: Forecast epidemiology of uterine cancer across the seven major markets, 2006-12 44
Table 1.11: Estimated epidemiology of leukemia across the seven major markets, 2006 47
Table 1.12: Forecast epidemiology of leukemia across the seven major markets, 2006-12 49
Table 1.13: Estimated epidemiology of prostate cancer across the seven major markets, 2006 52
Table 1.14: Forecast epidemiology of prostate cancer across the seven major markets, 2006-12 54
Table 1.15: Estimated epidemiology of pancreatic cancer across the seven major markets, 2006 56
Table 1.16: Forecast epidemiology of pancreatic cancer across the seven major markets, 2006-12 58
Table 1.17: Estimated epidemiology of lymphomas across the seven major markets, 2006 61
Table 1.18: Forecast epidemiology of lymphomas across the seven major markets, 2006-12 62
Table 2.19: Breakdown of the global cancer market by drug class, 2003-06 70
Table 2.20: Leading products in the global cancer market, 2005-06 72
Table 2.21: Breakdown of the global antineoplastic market by drug class, 78
Table 2.22: Leading therapies in the global antineoplastics market, 2005-06 81
Table 2.23: Antineoplastic sales forecast, 2006-12 128
Table 2.24: Breakdown of the global immunostimulant market by drug class, 2003-06 130
Table 2.25: Leading therapies in the global immunostimulant market, 2005-06 133
Table 2.26: Immunostimulant sales forecast, 2006-12 143
Table 2.27: Global cytostatic hormonal therapy market by drug class, 2003-06 146
Table 2.28: Leading therapies in the global cytostatic hormonal therapy market, 2005-06 148
Table 2.29: Cytostatic hormonal therapy sales forecast, 2006-12 168
Table 2.30: Cancer sales forecasts by drug class, 2006-112 169
Table 3.31: Cancer pipeline sales forecasts, 2006-12 203
Table 4.32: Leading players in the cancer market, 2005-06 208
Table 4.33: Roche's cancer product portfolio, 2005-06 212
Table 4.34: Roche's cancer R&D product pipeline, 2007 214
Table 4.35: Amgen's cancer product portfolio, 2005-06 218
Table 4.36: Amgen's cancer R&D product pipeline, 2007 219
Table 4.37: Sanofi-Aventis' cancer product portfolio, 2005-06 223
Table 4.38: Sanofi-Aventis' cancer R&D product pipeline, 2007 224
Table 4.39: AstraZeneca's cancer product portfolio, 2005-06 228
Table 4.40: AstraZeneca's cancer R&D product pipeline, 2007 230
Table 4.41: Novartis' cancer product portfolio, 2005-06 234
Table 4.42: Novartis' cancer R&D product pipeline, 2007 235
Table 4.43: Pfizer's cancer product portfolio, 2005-06 240
Table 4.44: Pfizer's cancer R&D product pipeline, 2007 242
Table 4.45: Schering-Plough's cancer product portfolio, 2005-06 246
Table 4.46: Schering-Plough's cancer R&D product pipeline, 2007 248
Table 4.47: Lilly's cancer product portfolio, 2005-06 251
Table 4.48: Lilly's cancer R&D product pipeline, 2007 252